In the Next 3 Days, Tanjungpinang and Bintan are Expected to have Light Rain during The Day
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Department (BMKG) Raja Haji Fisabilillah (RHF) Tanjungpinang predicts the weather for the Tanjungpinang...
Penulis: Lia Sisvita Dinatri | Editor: Eko Setiawan
TRIBUNBATAM.id, TANJUNGPINANG - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Department (BMKG) Raja Haji Fisabilillah (RHF) Tanjungpinang predicts the weather for the Tanjungpinang City area and Bintan Regency, Riau Islands (Kepri) for the next three days.
Dynamics analysis, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as of August 19, 2021 around the waters of the Riau Islands, especially in the waters of Bintan Island, is generally still in warm conditions ranging from 29 - 30°C and the SST anomaly in the waters of the Riau Islands tends to positive value between 0.0 sd +1.0°C.
The updated ENSO index is still at -0.39 and is in a neutral condition.
It is estimated that this neutral condition will last until December-January-February 2022, so that in general it will not have an impact on increasing convection activity in Indonesian territory.
"The updated Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is also still worth -0.6 which indicates a negative condition, and is predicted to return to neutral and last until January 2022, so it is quite influential on increasing convection activity in the western part of Indonesia," said Tanjungpinang BMKG forecaster, H Nur. Mahron, Sunday, (8/22/2021).
Analysis as of August 19, 2021 shows that the active MJO is in phase 2 and is predicted to still actively move towards phase 3, thus, it is quite influential on increasing the distribution of rain-producing convective clouds in western Indonesia, including Bintan Island and its surroundings.
"Australian monsoon winds are predicted to continue to dominate most of southern Indonesia until the third day of August 2021. This is indicated by the flow of air masses in Indonesia, which is still dominated by easterly winds.
The cyclone is predicted to form in the western region of Sumatra," he explained.
Based on the analysis of atmospheric dynamics, the influence of global-scale weather phenomena (ENSO) has no effect, while MJO and IOD are quite influential on increasing convection activity in the Indonesian region, especially western Indonesia.
A warm SST value with a positive SST anomaly value indicates a higher evaporation activity than usual and increases the supply of water vapor to the atmosphere, thus supporting the formation of convective clouds around the Bintan Island area.
Local scale weather phenomena in the form of wind encounters (convergence) are still dominant around Bintan Island. Then, the atmospheric conditions that are still wet, in the next few days can also increase the potential for the growth of convective clouds in the Bintan Island area and its surroundings.
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