ITB Researchers Predict that Covid-19 Spread will End in April, Here are the Explanation

TRIBUNBATAM.id - The spread of the Coronavirus continues to draw public attention, not least in Indonesia.

As is known, this outbreak has also entered Indonesia. The spread of the Covid-19 virus in Indonesia continues to suck up public attention. Because until now Covid-19 patients in Indonesia are reportedly still increasing.

Even in some areas, the Supervisory Person (ODP) reportedly jumped dramatically. 

However, no need to worry, the spread of the coronavirus can be prevented and overcome in various ways. 

Launching Information from Kompas on Tuesday (3/24/2020), the Center for Mathematical Modeling and Simulation (P2MS) at the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) has carried out simulations and simple models in predicting the spread of Covid-19 in Indonesia.

Through this research, Indonesia is predicted to experience a peak in the number of Covid-19 cases at the end of March to mid-April 2020.

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The Corona pandemic is expected to end when the largest daily case stands at around 600 percent predicted in April. 

"It should be noted, this is the result of modeling with one model that is quite simple, does not include the factors of high complexity," said the research team Nuning Nuraini in a written statement, Thursday (3/19/2020).

Nuning explained that this research was motivated by the case of Covid-19 in Indonesia which was part of a global pandemic. 

"In this study, we are trying to answer fundamental questions about the current epidemic in Indonesia through a simple mathematical model," Nuning said. 

A study that became a scientific journal, the research team built a representation model of the number of Covid-19 cases using Richard’s Curve model.

The model proved successful in predicting the beginning, end, and peak of the SARS endemic in Hong Kong in 2003.

After determining this research model, the team finally tested various reported Covid-19 case data from various countries.

Like China, Iran, Italy, South Korea, and the United States, including accumulative data throughout the world.

Mathematically, South Korea's Richard’s Curve model is the most suitable because the error is so small compared to reported data in Indonesia.